President-Elect Donald Trump has everyone guessing what his foreign policy will be like, especially in relation to Russia and China. There is wide-spread concern that a President Trump will be too friendly to Russia. I find that to be a bit strange in that he has never actually said he liked Russia or Putin or that they are anything other than unfriendly foreign powers. Yes, he may admire Putin's strength or various successes, but there is no evidence that he desires the outcomes of Putin's various activities. In any event, my calculation is that this "play nice with Russia" approach is one of the biggest head fakes in history. My view is based on a number of realities and then a possible strategy.
The first reality is that China is a way more important competition to the United States than Russia is. Russia has a horrible economy, ineffective or non-existent social and other institutions and little prospect for economic growth or global influence outside of its traditional sphere of influence. Yes, Russia has a capable military to interfere in those areas of traditional influence, but it scarcely has the financial capability to do that, let alone to go beyond those areas. And, Russia's kleptocratic economy does not bode well for improving Russia's situation, even if Western sanctions are eventually lifted. China, on the other hand, is a massive economic power with much more room to grow, albeit at a slower growth rate than over the last few decades. Despite lots of potential pitfalls in China's future (very high levels of debt, inefficiently allocated capital, etc.), there is every reason to believe that China's GDP and GDP per capita will continue to grow. And, consequently, China will be very capable of financing growing political, economic, military and social influences around the world. Russia and China have no comparison. The main issue would be that the US would not want to run a fight against both of them at the same time.
As such, my view is that Trump's approach of playing nice with Putin is that Putin and Russia cannot really hurt the U.S. (perhaps other than via cyberspace, which is another thing and I doubt we'll play nice on that front) and so it makes sense to at least pretend to work with Russia for now while the US takes on China on all sorts of issues and levels - South China Sea, North Korea, Chinese cyber attacks, trade, currency, Taiwan and Hong Kong, etc. The main point is to not be nice to Russia, but to not encourage Russia and China to team up as an anti-US front. Thus, softening relations with Russia can be explained as preparing for the direct attack on China issues, not anything to do with liking Russia or Putin.
The first reality is that China is a way more important competition to the United States than Russia is. Russia has a horrible economy, ineffective or non-existent social and other institutions and little prospect for economic growth or global influence outside of its traditional sphere of influence. Yes, Russia has a capable military to interfere in those areas of traditional influence, but it scarcely has the financial capability to do that, let alone to go beyond those areas. And, Russia's kleptocratic economy does not bode well for improving Russia's situation, even if Western sanctions are eventually lifted. China, on the other hand, is a massive economic power with much more room to grow, albeit at a slower growth rate than over the last few decades. Despite lots of potential pitfalls in China's future (very high levels of debt, inefficiently allocated capital, etc.), there is every reason to believe that China's GDP and GDP per capita will continue to grow. And, consequently, China will be very capable of financing growing political, economic, military and social influences around the world. Russia and China have no comparison. The main issue would be that the US would not want to run a fight against both of them at the same time.
As such, my view is that Trump's approach of playing nice with Putin is that Putin and Russia cannot really hurt the U.S. (perhaps other than via cyberspace, which is another thing and I doubt we'll play nice on that front) and so it makes sense to at least pretend to work with Russia for now while the US takes on China on all sorts of issues and levels - South China Sea, North Korea, Chinese cyber attacks, trade, currency, Taiwan and Hong Kong, etc. The main point is to not be nice to Russia, but to not encourage Russia and China to team up as an anti-US front. Thus, softening relations with Russia can be explained as preparing for the direct attack on China issues, not anything to do with liking Russia or Putin.
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